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ESL Lesson Plan · CEFR B2

Future Probability ESL Lesson Plan (B2, 60 Minutes)

A complete 60-minute B2 lesson on Future Probability, built round the theme "Life in 2050".

  • CEFR B2
  • 60 minutes
  • Teenagers and adults
  • Grammar
  • Future Forms
  • Future Probability

About this lesson

Who it is for. Upper-intermediate students who make predictions only with will and might. They make errors such as It is likely to it will rain and He will bound to win.

Everything the lesson needs is on this page: the language analysis, the timed stages with the teacher's own words and instruction-checking questions, the differentiation, the printable handouts and the answer key.

At a glance

Level
CEFR B2 (Upper-intermediate)
Learners
Teenagers and adults
Length
60 minutes. For 45 minutes, run "Freer practice" once through without the second round and cut "Feedback and wrap-up" to board-based error correction.
Skills
Speaking and writing
Language focus
Grammar: Future Probability (likely to, bound to, could well, I doubt)
Framework
PPP (presentation, practice, production)
Materials
Handout 1 (news report), Handout 2 (certainty scale and practice), Handout 3 (further practice), Handout 4 (scenario cards).
Preparation
About 10 minutes: print Handouts 1 to 4, one per learner, and read the language analysis. The answer key is for you, not the class.

Aims

Main aim. To expand students' range of structures for expressing degrees of future probability and improve their accuracy.

Learning outcome. By the end of the lesson, students can discuss future scenarios, expressing different degrees of certainty accurately, e.g. Cash is bound to disappear eventually, but I doubt it'll happen before 2040.

  • Subsidiary aim. To develop fluency in discussion and justification.
  • Subsidiary aim. To read a news report for specific information.

Language analysis

What to know before the lesson: the meaning, form and pronunciation of the target language, and the problems learners usually have with it.

Form and degree of certainty

CertaintyStructureExample
~100%will definitely / certainly; be bound to / be sure to + infinitivePrices are bound to rise.
~80%will probably; be likely to + infinitive; It's likely that + clause; There's a good chance that ...; could well / may wellStorms are likely to increase. We could well see more flooding.
~50%may / might / could + infinitiveCars might fly one day.
~20%probably won't; be unlikely to; I doubt (whether / if) ...; There's little chance that ...Cash is unlikely to disappear soon. I doubt robots will replace teachers.
~0%definitely won't; There's no chance that ...Humans definitely won't live on the sun.

Accuracy points

  • Adverb position: will probably go but probably won't go.
  • likely is an adjective: He is likely to win / It is likely that he will win (not He will likely to win in British English).
  • bound to needs be: He's bound to win.
  • I doubt + clause (no negative): I doubt he'll come (= I think he won't come).

Pronunciation

  • Stress on the probability word: It's BOUND to happen. It could WELL rain.

Concept-checking questions

  • Prices are bound to rise. Is the speaker sure? (Yes, very sure.)
  • I doubt he'll come. Does the speaker think he'll come? (No, probably not.)

Anticipated problems and solutions

ProblemSolution
It is likely to it will rain (mixed patterns).Board the two separate patterns with colour.
Missing be with bound / likely / unlikely.Highlight be in the formula.
Adverb position errors.Show will probably / probably won't side by side.
I don't doubt misunderstood.Keep to I doubt at this level; mention I have no doubt for stronger students.

Board plan

Left: vocabularyCentre: certainty scaleRight: patterns
population · metro · flood defences · cashless · economist · prediction
100%: bound to · sure to · definitely · 80%: likely to · could well · probably · good chance · 50%: may · might · could · 20%: unlikely to · probably won't · I doubt · 0%: definitely won't · no chance
be + bound/likely/unlikely + to + infinitive · It's likely that + clause · will probably / probably won't · I doubt + clause

CEFR B2 · 60 minutes · Teenagers and adults

Procedure: Future Probability, step by step

Warm-up5 minutes · Pairs, then whole class

Aim: To introduce the topic.

Write five predictions on the board: flying cars, a cashless world, a four-day school week, robots as teachers, holidays on the moon.

Pairs rank them from most likely to least likely by 2050 (2 minutes). Take brief feedback.

Presentation20 minutes · Individual, pairs, whole class

Aim: To present expressions of future probability in context and clarify their degree of certainty and form.

Part A: Reading (6 minutes)

Give out Handout 1. Say: "Read the report. Which prediction is the most certain? Which is the least? Three minutes."

Pairs compare. Students answer the three questions. Check as a class.

Part B: Noticing (5 minutes)

Give out Handout 2. Say: "Put the bold expressions from the report on the certainty scale."

ICQs: "Where do you put bound to: 100% or 50%?" (100%.)

Pairs compare.

Part C: Clarification (9 minutes)

Build the certainty scale on the board.

Focus on form: be likely to + infinitive vs It's likely that + clause; be bound to; adverb position (will probably / probably won't); I doubt + positive clause.

Ask the CCQs from the Language analysis.

Pronunciation. Drill with stress on the probability word: It's BOUND to happen. It could WELL rain.

Controlled practice10 minutes · Individual, then pairs, then whole class

Aim: To practise the structures accurately.

Say: "Now do Exercise A on Handout 2: correct the mistakes. Then Exercise B: three predictions about your town." (7 minutes.)

Pairs check. Check Exercise A as a class; two students read their predictions.

Fast finishers do Handout 3 (further practice); otherwise set it for homework.

Freer practice18 minutes · Groups, then whole class

Aim: To use a range of probability structures fluently and accurately in discussion.

Give each group a set of scenario cards (Handout 4). Say: "Discuss each scenario. Agree a group prediction and a certainty level. Use at least five different structures from the scale." (12 minutes.)

ICQs: "Do you need to agree?" (Yes, a group prediction.) "How many different structures?" (At least five.)

Each group presents its most controversial prediction with a reason (1 minute each). Other groups agree or disagree using the structures.

Monitor and note language use.

Feedback and wrap-up7 minutes · Whole class

Aim: To give feedback and consolidate.

Board sentences from Stage 4 (correct and incorrect). Students correct the errors.

Ask: "Which new structure will you use most?"

Set the homework.

Homework Complete Handout 3. Then write a 180-word article: Life in 2050. Use at least six different probability structures.

PPP (presentation, practice, production). Stage times add up to 60 minutes.

Differentiation

Support
Keep the certainty scale visible during the discussion. Give weaker groups sentence starters on the scenario cards.
Stretch
Stronger students hedge academically: It seems likely that ..., There is a strong possibility that ... They challenge other groups: I'm not convinced that ... is bound to happen, because ...

Adapting the lesson

ForWhat to change
A large class (40 or more)Keep the pairwork in "Freer practice" in fixed pairs rather than a mingle, and take feedback from four or five pairs instead of the whole room. Monitor one half of the room during "Controlled practice" and the other half during "Freer practice".
A class with no photocopierPut the exercises from Handout 2: Certainty Scale and Practice on the board for learners to copy into their notebooks, and read any text aloud twice instead of printing it. Handout 4: Scenario Cards works read out from the front: learners note what they need rather than holding a card. The board plan above is this lesson's minimum - with that on the board, it runs on no paper at all.
An online classSend Handouts 1 to 4 in the chat before the lesson and put the board plan on a shared slide. Use breakout rooms for the pairwork in "Freer practice" and visit each room once. Have learners type the controlled answers in the chat, so you see every answer at once instead of nominating.
A different age groupWith teenagers, shorten the analysis and get to the task sooner. With adults in a work context, keep the forms exactly as they are and swap the lesson's theme for one from their own field.

Checking learning

In the discussion, students use at least five different probability structures accurately. 5 out of 6 or better on Handout 2, Exercise A.

Teacher's reflection

Which structures were new to most students? Did students use the structures naturally in the discussion?

Handout 1: News Report

Name: ______________________________ Date: ______________

COLOMBO 2050: WHAT WILL OUR CITY LOOK LIKE?

Experts agree that the population of Colombo is bound to grow, and traffic is likely to become an even bigger problem unless public transport improves. There's a good chance that the city will have a metro system by 2040, and electric buses could well replace most diesel buses within twenty years.

Climate scientists warn that sea levels are likely to rise, and coastal areas may need new flood defences. Temperatures will probably increase by one or two degrees.

But not everything will change. I doubt people will stop eating rice and curry! And cash is unlikely to disappear completely, says economist Dr Wijesinghe: "Many small traders still prefer it. Online payments will definitely grow, but there's little chance that cash will vanish before 2050."

Questions

  • Which predictions are the most certain? ______________________________
  • What might coastal areas need? ______________________________
  • What does Dr Wijesinghe think about cash? ______________________________

Handout 2: Certainty Scale and Practice

Name: ______________________________ Date: ______________

Put the highlighted expressions from the report on the scale.

A. Correct the mistakes. One sentence is correct.

B. Write three predictions about your town in 2050, each with a different degree of certainty.

  • It is likely to it will rain. ______________________________
  • He will bound to win. ______________________________
  • She probably will not come. ______________________________
  • I don't doubt he won't come. (meaning I think he won't) ______________________________
  • Prices could well rise next year. ______________________________
  • They are unlikely winning. ______________________________
100% (certain)80% (probable)50% (possible)20% (improbable)

Handout 3: Further Practice

Name: ______________________________ Date: ______________

Rewrite each sentence using the word in brackets. Keep the meaning the same.

  • It will almost certainly rain this afternoon. (bound) → ______________________________
  • It's probable that prices will rise. (likely) → ______________________________
  • I don't think he'll come. (doubt) → ______________________________
  • Maybe they'll cancel the match. (might) → ______________________________
  • There's a strong possibility we'll move abroad. (well) → ______________________________
  • It's improbable that cash will disappear soon. (unlikely) → ______________________________
  • She probably won't pass. (likely) → ______________________________
  • I'm sure he'll be late. He always is. (sure) → ______________________________

Handout 4: Scenario Cards

Useful language

  • I think it's bound to happen because ...
  • There's a good chance that ...
  • It could well happen, but ...
  • I doubt it'll happen before ...
  • It's unlikely to happen in our lifetime.
  • I'm not so sure. I think ...
AI teachers: Will robots or AI replace teachers in schools?A four-day week: Will most people work only four days a week?
Space tourism: Will ordinary people go on holiday in space?Cashless world: Will cash disappear completely?
Electric vehicles: Will petrol cars be banned in Sri Lanka?Online-only shopping: Will physical shops close?
Climate: Will summers in your country be much hotter?Languages: Will everyone speak English as a second language?

Answer Key

Handout 1

Handout 2, scale

Handout 2, Exercise A

Handout 3

Common errors to watch for

  • The population is bound to grow; online payments will definitely grow. · 2. New flood defences. · 3. It is unlikely to disappear completely before 2050.
  • 100%: is bound to, will definitely · 80%: is likely to, there's a good chance that, could well, will probably · 50%: may · 20%: I doubt, is unlikely to, there's little chance that
  • It is likely to rain. / It is likely that it will rain. · 2. He is bound to win. · 3. She probably won't come. · 4. I doubt he'll come. · 5. Correct. · 6. They are unlikely to win.
  • It is bound to rain this afternoon. · 2. Prices are likely to rise. / It's likely that prices will rise. · 3. I doubt (whether / if) he'll come. · 4. They might cancel the match. · 5. We could / may well move abroad. · 6. Cash is unlikely to disappear soon. · 7. She is unlikely to pass. / She isn't likely to pass. · 8. He is sure to be late.
ErrorCorrection
It is likely to it will rain.It is likely to rain. / It is likely that it will rain.
He will bound to win.He is bound to win.
She probably will not come.She probably won't come.
I doubt he won't come.I doubt he'll come.

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About this lesson plan

Written by RCF English to the RCF English international standard: levelled by the CEFR, original throughout, and suitable for classrooms in any country. Last reviewed 22 September 2026.

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